Introduction: The Uncharted Territory of AI in Education

The role of artificial intelligence in education remains largely unknown. How is it currently developing and how is it expected to evolve between now and 2030 in Latin America? This question sits at the heart of a collaborative study between the ProFuturo Foundation and the Organisation of Ibero-American States (OEI), which seeks to generate new knowledge to help Latin American countries plan educational actions while taking into account technological progress.

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the global integration of technology in education. Latin America experienced a dramatic process of disruption of face-to-face classes, longer than any other region in the world. The educational crisis triggered by the pandemic demands new solutions to address many challenges. The achievement of SDG4 — targeted for 2030 — is increasingly far from being met in critical dimensions such as access, equity and quality of education.

Methodology: Capturing Expert Perspectives

The study surveyed three distinct groups of stakeholders within Latin America's digital education ecosystem between 2022 and 2023:

In total, the survey was sent to 141 potential participants, with a final sample of 67 people — a response rate of 42.68%. The sample represents participants from 17 countries, with the highest number of respondents from Argentina (17), Colombia (10) and Chile (9).

Key Findings: The Present and Future Relevance of AI

AI's Impact Varies by Educational Level

Respondents perceive that AI has and will have a greater impact on higher education than on basic education in Latin America. On a scale of 1 to 5, respondents gave AI a current relevance score of 3.1 for tertiary and university education, compared to just 1.3 for initial education. Looking ahead to 2030, these scores rise to 4.0 for tertiary education and 1.9 for initial education, confirming a general belief that technologies will play a greater role in education in the future.

The study notes a notable difference between primary and secondary levels. Respondents perceive that AI's role is and will be considerably more relevant in primary education than in secondary education — a trend that may be explained by the increased availability of technology and education programmes for the primary level in the region, or by perceptions that secondary education is more resistant to innovation.

Learning Beyond School and Special Needs Education Are Top Priorities

When asked about the different roles AI can play in education, respondents did not show major differences in average scores across functions. However, two functions stood out for higher relevance: learning beyond school (4.1 future score) and opportunities for students with special educational needs (4.1 future score). School management received lower relevance (3.7 future score).

Government Officials Are Most Optimistic, Academics Most Skeptical

The study reveals notable differences in perceptions across the three stakeholder groups. Government officials tend to assign greater relevance to both present and future AI impact across all educational levels. Academics present the greatest difference between current and future relevance, suggesting a more critical perception of the present with a more promising future. Private sector representatives proved to be the most "pessimistic" about the future, with some indicating that AI will have practically no more relevance in the future than it has at present for initial education.

The Role of Institutions and Actors

Respondents perceive that large international companies currently have a dominant role in the introduction of AI in education, a trend they anticipate will persist in the future. However, they also believe that the role of the state and other actors will increase in importance.

Notably, academics are least convinced about the prospective leadership role of nation states, with only 32% expressing this belief, compared to more than half of respondents in the other two groups. Private sector representatives attach greater importance to the role of domestic and emerging markets, with 50% believing the domestic market will play a leading role — equal to the percentage who believe the state will play such a role.

Educational Scenarios: Pandemic vs. AI as Drivers of Change

Half of the experts believe that AI will have a profound impact on education in Latin America between 2022 and 2030. Specifically, 50% of respondents believe AI will generate major changes or a "before and after" in education — a very high figure showing the potential impact of technological transformations in the coming years. In contrast, 40% believe AI will bring about moderate changes and 10% indicate it will not bring about relevant changes.

AI and Educational Inequalities

Respondents hold divergent views on how AI will impact educational equity. While 41% believe AI will help reduce educational inequalities within countries, 39% believe AI will contribute to widening inequalities between countries. This suggests that experts are warning of differential appropriation of AI technologies by more developed countries over less developed countries to a greater extent than the way privileged sectors within countries might appropriate AI benefits.

The Pace of Change

The majority (63%) of respondents believe the impact of AI will be seen gradually, not as a sudden shock. However, 48% of academics believe AI in education will develop more slowly than many assume, showing this group to be more cautious about the speed of changes. At the same time, 16% of academics say the changes brought about by AI in education will come as a "shock" in the next few years — revealing greater heterogeneity of prognoses in this group.

Recommendations for Governments

When asked about policy priorities for Latin American governments concerning AI in education, experts placed foundational issues at the top of the agenda — challenges that predate the introduction of AI but remain critical for its successful integration.

The low priority assigned to market incentives aligns with the tendency of experts consulted to value the role of the state more highly than the role of the private sector. Notably, training students in critical thinking was valued even above training in digital skills, reflecting concerns about responsible AI consumption and use.

Implications for Monitoring and Evaluation in Education

The study's findings have significant implications for how Monitoring and Evaluation systems in education can evolve with AI integration:

Ethical Considerations and Risks

The study highlights important ethical considerations that must be addressed as AI integrates into education systems:

• Data privacy: Protecting the personal information of students and teachers is essential. Ethical protocols must control student data and privacy.
• Bias in algorithms: AI systems must be designed to avoid reinforcing existing inequalities or marginalising the voices of different cultural groups that represent the diversity of communities in the region.
• Digital divide: Unequal access to technology can exacerbate disparities between regions and populations. The study notes that what is gained in accelerated learning may jeopardise socialisation or increase inequalities based on inequitable access.
• Responsible use: Clear guidelines are needed to ensure ethical and transparent use of AI in education, respecting screen time and generating protocols that promote responsible consumption.

Key Takeaways for M&E and Education Professionals

Frequently Asked Questions